:: control the market

when the market moves in one direction, it may be faking and be about to go the OTHER WAY because market makers have one simple yet powerful trick.

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How the Market should work

Imagine that a market really IS controlled by the laws of "supply and demand", and rises and falls due to the imbalance between external buyers and sellers (you and me) competing for, or shunning certain securities. In this wonderful la-la land, market makers really don't care what the market does, as they make their own money from the spread. And a nice profit is is too. But hang on - isn't there any way to make MORE money from these investing sheep? Of course there is.

How the Market really works

To lubricate their transactions, market makers need a supply, or inventory of the securities they support. This can either be real certificates, or via a process called 'stock lending' (don't worry about THAT one yet - it basically means they borrow stock or "pretend" they have it). Once you have an inventory of stock, and the concept of 'spread' (or 'edge'), a marvelous opportunity opens up. The average price at which a market maker accumulates a security and the average price at which he distributes it are going to be different. Add this to the fact that the market maker sets the price tick by tick, and boom! A license to print money. Observe closely, this is a good trick.

Let's play Chicken

I, as a market maker, decide (for no real reason, or perhaps because there has been some trivial news about them) that stock in ABC Corp is my plaything today. I don't have much of an inventory in that particular security, so what do I do? Mark up the price so external holders will sell me some? No. I mark the price DOWN. Oof. Some external parties see this as a buying opportunity, and as I am a market maker, I am obliged to sell them the security at the new, lower price, meaning I am even shorter on that security.

Sounds mad, doesn't it? But it doesn't matter, because I mark the price down again. And again. And I keep on doing it till I hit the stops of external parties who are long, but weak, or the limit orders of people who are short. As a market maker, I know where these stops and limits are. I own the book, after all.

Ordinary Joe Public mostly think the market follows the laws of supply and demand, follows trendlines or fibonaccis etc, which means they all tend to put their stops in similar places ('resistance' anyone? 'support'? That's right, it exists!). This is a game of chicken, really, and YOU will ALWAYS crack before ME (the market maker), because I can take the market to zero, or to the moon. You have to meet a margin call.

So now I am a market maker who has a LOT of supply of ABC Corp, which has fallen significantly in price. Looks like I'm holding a plum, doesn't it? What do I do next? more...